But as the world turns away from mined gems toward lab-grown stones, whispers in the Kalahari are growing into a roar. The question on every citizen’s mind: Is Botswana getting a raw deal?
The core of the "raw deal" argument lies in a fundamental absurdity. Botswana's state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) now receives an allocation of rough stones, which it intends to sell directly to buyers. In November 2025, ODC began transitioning to a contract sales model to diversify away from De Beers' control. The ambition is to eventually sell 50% of its allocation through these direct channels. This is a crucial step toward economic sovereignty.
Is Botswana getting a raw deal? The answer is nuanced. Compared to other mineral-rich nations in Africa, Botswana has secured an exceptionally favorable arrangement. However, in the context of modern ESG standards and the rise of synthetic competitors, the "old" way of doing business is no longer enough.
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Policy options Botswana could pursue to capture more value But as the world turns away from mined
While rough diamonds are now aggregated in Botswana, the local cutting and polishing industry struggles to compete with established hubs in India and Israel. Critics argue that De Beers protects its traditional supply chains, leaving Botswana with the low-margin work of sorting while high-margin manufacturing remains offshore. The "raw deal" narrative suggests that Botswana is doing the heavy lifting of extraction while the true wealth generation happens elsewhere.
Botswana was getting a raw deal to the extent that it remained economically dependent on the volatile upstream sector while De Beers captured the resilient downstream premiums. The revised sales agreement goes a long way toward correcting this imbalance.
De Beers maintains that the partnership remains mutually beneficial. They point to the significant capital investment required to keep the mines operational and the risks they absorb in volatile global markets. Furthermore, they argue that their marketing engine—specifically the "Diamonds are Forever
The conflict came to a head this spring. Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi demanded that state-owned Okavango Diamond Company be allowed to sell 50% of the local production independently, bypassing De Beers’ London sorting room. De Beers countered with an offer of 30%. This is a crucial step toward economic sovereignty
De Beers’ counter is equally simple: We are the only ones with the global marketing machine (the "A Diamond Is Forever" legacy) and the banking relationships to keep prices stable.
Measuring fairness: frameworks and metrics Determining whether Botswana is getting a raw deal depends on the metric:
To gauge if Botswana is getting a raw deal, one must look at the historical trajectory. In 1967, when the Orapa pipe was found, Botswana had 12 kilometers of paved road. Sir Seretse Khama, the founding president, made a prescient deal with Harry Oppenheimer. He accepted a lower immediate royalty in exchange for the "reserved right" to buy into the asset later.
At the heart of the tension is Debswana—a 50/50 joint venture between the government and De Beers. For 50 years, the deal was simple: De Beers handled global marketing and sales; Botswana collected roughly 80% of the revenue from domestic production. But last year, a new mining code and a standoff over a new sales agreement exposed deep fractures. and they have turned ugly. However
An initial BWP 1 billion (approx. $75 million) investment by De Beers to help diversify the economy, with potential for further contributions.
Another friction point is the financial structure of the agreement. Under the current deal, Botswana sells 75% of Debswana’s output to the Okavango Diamond Company (a state-owned entity), while De Beers takes the remaining 25%.
For over 50 years, the De Beers–Botswana partnership has been the envy of the resource-rich world. The cornerstone of this arrangement is Debswana, a 50/50 joint venture between the government and De Beers that controls the country's vast diamond reserves, including the legendary Jwaneng mine, often cited as the world's richest diamond mine by value. In a model rarely seen in Africa, Botswana used its diamond windfalls to build schools, roads, and hospitals, achieving a status that earned it the title of an "African success story".
Negotiations for a new deal have been ongoing for over a year, and they have turned ugly.
However, the proposed solution—taking control of De Beers—is a high-stakes gamble. It could allow Botswana to finally capture the full value of its mineral wealth, but it also risks sinking the nation deeper into debt and dependency on a beleaguered industry. Whether President Boko’s bold vision will lead to a new era of diamond-driven prosperity or a cautionary tale of overreach is a story that is still being written in the mines of Jwaneng and the negotiating rooms of Gaborone.